At the time of designing an organizational strategy, conjectures about what the possible future events could be are made. Once upcoming risks are identified, contingency plans are put in place. But what happens about those situations or events that may occur and cause total uncertainty, situations where there is no “voice of truth” about which decisions are the most appropriate or how collateral events will unfold? In such cases, the approach to scenario planning is crucial – it is not any longer a matter of identifying risks but about studying the uncertainty of the immediate context in relation to the organization.
According to Dr. Rafael Ramirez – director of the Scenario Planning programme of Oxford University, “in this programme, we think about the users a lot more as students than as the responsible decision-making agents in their organizations; because they must focus in learning about the future that is coming, so they can be better prepared for it”
During the current pandemic, certain specific matters arise (such as the extension of time it will last, its recurrence in time, the development of medication and vaccines) and also other matters collateral to it (such as the inequality of access to health, migratory problems of populations that are looking for a better healthcare system, how the vision of globalization will be affected, how institution such as NATO, UN or WHO will handle this situation in relation to different governments, etc.). The extension of the context that a pandemic affect is, in itself, an uncertainty factor.
When planning using scenarios, it is important to focus on the short term and even more in the present, in those things we are trying to do. Which are the possible scenarios? What will these scenarios allow us to think and do? Which are the original conjectures laid out in our business model that will no longer be possible? Which opportunities of creating exist in these new scenarios? What type of roles can be generated?
Developing a certain number of “what if…” to explore in a real and practical way, identifying which are the most urgent uncertainties, will help us build horizons.
Managing the current deep levels of uncertainty is helping us to perceive the idea of plausibility, not anymore as a theoretical construct but as a reality. Each one of us is experiencing what Ramirez and Land define as TUNA: turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity.
If organizations do not invest in scenario planning, the alternative cost is too high: not thinking about the consequences that may happen. Imagining ghost scenarios with the idea of doing what is already being done but better will make it easier to identify if the assumptions that are being made are solid enough or if it is necessary to think in how to create a more resilient organization in front of the possibility that instead of X, Y happens.